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Solar Sector Boundary Crossing on February 1st, 2014 - Research Notes

02/03/2014

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Compiled by David (mrloferlofer) - The previous Solar Sector Boundary Crossing was on January 21, 2014:

"SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING: High-latitude auroras are possible on Jan. 21st when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet. This is called a "solar sector boundary crossing," and NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when it occurs." 
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Source: Dr. Tony Phillips 'Time Machine' Site Archive.
According to NOAA's Forecast Discussion on February 2nd, 2014, published at 00:30 UTC & 12:30 UTC, a Solar Sector Boundary Crossing occurred the morning of February 1st @ 10:00 UTC:
"Around 1/1000 UTC a Solar Sector Boundary change from Away-to-Toward occurred ['+' is away from the Sun, '-' is toward the Sun is -]. The EPAM instrument indicated a slow rise in low energy particles, signalling the approach of the anticipated CME."

24-h Solar Wind Summary (@ 12:30 UTC): "Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speed increasing slightly through the period from approximately 334 km/s to 380 km/s. Total field also saw a minor increase from 2 nT to 6 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with minor deviations into a positive (away) sector."

PictureImage adapted from Smith et al.
"Along the plane of the Sun's magnetic equator, the oppositely directed open field lines run parallel to each other and are separated by a thin current sheet known as the "interplanetary current sheet" or "heliospheric current sheet" (see the figure above). The current sheet is tilted (because of an offset between the Sun's rotational and magnetic axes) and warped (because of a quadrupole moment in the solar magnetic field) and thus has a wavy, "ballerina skirt"-like structure as it extends into interplanetary space (see the figure on the left).

Because the Earth is located sometimes above and sometimes below the rotating current sheet, it experiences regular, periodic changes in the polarity of the IMF. These periods of alternating positive (away from the Sun) and negative (toward the Sun) polarity are known as magnetic sectors." - Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF).

Research Paper Notes, Conclusions on Solar Sector Boundary Crossings:

"As the solar wind flows away from the Sun, the IMF is carried with it and has a spiral shape. Along the ecliptic plane, the IMF generally has 2 or 4 sectors per solar rotation (27 days) where it is pointed toward or away from the Sun. The surface separating the polarities is called the heliospheric current sheet. A sector boundary crossing occurs when the polarity of the IMF reverses. A well-defined sector boundary crossing has a uniform field direction for about 4 days before and after the crossing." - 'Effects Associated with the Sector Boundary Crossing on July 8, 1966.'

"It is concluded that Cosmic Ray density is high near the sector boundary. The decrease of neutron intensities after the boundary passage seem to be due to Forbush decreases which occur often after the boundary passages. The dominant part of cosmic ray density around the boundary correlates with solar wind velocity, irrespectively of the sense of IMF polarity change, and the increment per the change of solar wind velocity is consistent with the rate of 0.5% decrease per 100 km/s change derived by Lucci et al. (1979) and Munakata et al. (1979)." - 'IMF Sector Boundary and Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations.'

"Recent theoretical studies have shown that perturbations in the zonal equatorial electric field may be caused during conditions of enhanced geomagnetic activity by (a) a direct penetration of high latitude electric field associated with changes in the magnetospheric convection or changes in auroral or ring current systems (e.g., regs. 26-28) and (b) delayed changes in the atmospheric dynamo associated with large-scale perturbations in the thermospehric circulation owning to energy input to the high latitude thermosphere (29, 30).

The magnitude and direction of the perturbation electric field depend on a variety of conditions and the can enhance, oppose, or even reverse the normal equatorial electric field...All that can be inferred is that, on the average, westward (negative) perturbation electric fields prevail in the equatorial regions during the post-sunset period in wake of sector boundary passage owing to enhanced geomagnetic activity." - 'Response of the equatorial ionosphere to solar magnetic sector crossing.'

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We can typically expect 2 to 4 Solar Sector Boundary Crossings per every 27 day Solar Rotation period. Solar Sector Boundaries are marked by a change in polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field from positive (away from the Sun) and negative (towards the Sun). A list of Solar Sector Boundary crossings back from 1926 to the present exists over at Stanford's Wilcox Observatory Website.

Description from Leif Svalgaard: "The last two numbers are the number of days of each polarity on each side of the boundary, so "+,- 2014 01 10   18 9" means that there are 18 '+' days before the boundary and 9 '-' days after. This is to make it easy to do analysis, e.g. isolated SBs."

Ben (S0) recently commented about the rare, phenomenal explosion of auroras to start 2014, and especially the outburst visible at the beginning of February: "Earth's magnetic field has been slowly weakening since the 1600s, but recently has begun to rapidly decrease in strength, as much as 15%, according to NASA and the ESA. It is possible that the increased geomagnetic activity is a result of our weakening magnetic shield, and that it may continue to surprise us."

Don't forget to check out Hour 1 & 2 of Red Ice Radio's Interview with Ben (S0):

January 29th, 2014 - "We'll discuss the variable sun, its effects on earth and climate change. Ben elaborates on the connection between space weather, the natural environment and human condition. In the second hour, we discuss earthquakes, volcanoes and comets. How can we prepare for possible catastrophic changes on the horizon? Later, Ben talks about consciousness and placebo effect..."
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'The Weak Solar Cycle & Its Consequences - Press Conference' S0s Transcript

12/14/2013

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'FOTW - S0 Notes: December 12, 2013'

(0:01) Alright Guys, so I just watched a video; it's called: 'The Current Weak Solar Cycle and Its Consequences - Press Conference' it was posted on the YouTube Channel of the American Geophysical Union, better known as AGU.

(0:16) It was published on December 11th, 2013, I'm looking at it at about 3pm on December 12th, just a day later. Now what this was is they just basically posted a recording of a four Scientist panel, press conference or web conference, as it were.

(0:42) Two of the scientists were from NASA: one from Langley, one from Goddard. Another from the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory and Leif Svalgaard one of our favorites out of Stanford.
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American Geophysical Union's panel of four top scientists:

Nat Gopalswamy: Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Leif Svalgaard: W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University
Marty Mlynczak: Climate Science Branch, NASA Langley Research Center
Joe Giacalone: Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona
To Summarize Nat Gopalswamy's points:

-Reduced total pressure in the Heliosphere makes the CMEs expand more.


-Expansion of CMEs results in reduced Magnetic Field strength inside CMEs, which leads to weaker Geomagnetic Storms.


-The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere does not allow the shocks to accelerate particles to high energies, leading to low-level particle events.

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Coronal Holes and Earthquakes: if you are confused, you are new here.

12/12/2013

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Excerpts from 5MIN News December 12, 2013: 

(3:13) So what about the flares you did see? They appear to be post-filament release flaring rather than causative flaring from Sunspot instability; take a point away from the Sunspots and hand it to the Earth-directed CMEs.

(3:26) It's early, but with Earth off to the left here on Stereo A we do have a good chance of getting 'glancing blows' or up to maybe a moderate Magnetic Storm.

(3:34) As for the Quakes: everyday that I am ready to raise the 'Watch Score' over 7, the power either drops off or the fields shift around, like here. We're also missing 16 hours of yesterday's fields and no, didn't raise the 'Watch Score' last night either.

(3:48) Let's get shots of our Star to close, including the IRIS rasters. Eyes open, no fear. It's 6:45 A.M. Eastern Time and that's the news. Be safe everyone.


Coronal Holes

(0:40) Coronal Holes and Earthquakes: if you are confused, you are new here. There's a ton of good information online about Coronal Holes, including in these videos of mine:

'How to Watch the Sun' & 'They Want to Blame You'


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A Definitive Guide to Space Weather: Solar Storms

07/22/2013

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Here it is! A comprehensive guide to some of the various aspects, phenomenon of Space Weather.

Solar Storms are produced when:

"The Sun undergoes a cyclical (~22 year) pattern of magnetic pole reversals observable in the frequency of sunspot activity. This pattern is comprised of two ~11 year solar cycles phases. In the first phase, the sun’s magnetic poles reverse polarity. In the second phase, the sun reverses the magnetic polarity again returning the poles back to their original polarity. Solar storm activity is strongly phase dependent and also very dependent on the position within the solar cycle."

Part 1: Solar Flares Defined

Solar Storms, Solar Flares originate from Sunspots. The Sunspot Number is way of measuring the Solar Activity and Total Solar Irradiance. An increase in the Monthly Observable Sunspot Number increases the likelihood of Solar Flares which are:

"magnetically driven explosions. Approximately 8 minutes after a Solar Flare occurs on the surface of the sun, a powerful burst of electromagnetic radiation in the form of X-ray, extreme ultraviolet rays, gamma ray radiation and radio burst arrives at Earth. The EUV rays heat the upper atmosphere, which causes the outer atmospheric shell to expand. The X-Rays strip electrons from the atoms in the ionosphere producing a sudden increase in total electron content."

The reoccurring 8 minute time period in Space Weather is interesting. Back to Solar Flares, which are classified by scientists according to their brightness in the X-Ray wavelength. 

"The largest observed solar flare was the Carrington white light flare of September 1, 1859. The largest measured solar flare occurred on November 4, 2003 and was rated as an X45. Fortunately this flare only grazed Earth."
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Solar Storms consist of three major components: solar flares, solar proton events (SPEs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Not all solar storms produce solar flares, SPEs, and CMEs; but the largest solar storms tend to.

S0 has been tracking the significance of coronal holes in predicting large quakes and the role of galactic cosmic rays can no longer be ignored. Today's news update goes into detail on the function, role of coronal holes in the uptick of large EQs:
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Solar Flares are grouped into 5 categories: A-Class, B-Class, C-Class, M-Class and X-Class. Table 2 (above) shows the Intensity.

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Space Weather Changes from Quiet to Geomagnetic Storm (March 11-17th, 2013)

07/22/2013

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The purpose of this blog entry is to compile information surrounding the changes in Solar Activity, Solar Wind that resulted in a Geomagnetic Storm on March 17, 2013.

Geomagnetic Disturbances reduce our resistance to mental and physical fatigue. 

The goal is to present evidence of a pattern, which is increasing the chances, symptoms of a wide variety of health conditions in order to teach the reader what to look for.
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NOAA Space Weather Scales: Effects of Radiation Storms at various Levels. Collapsing atmosphere and weakening Magnetic Field so impacts are 10-20% more energetic.

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    CONTENT BY S.0.C.

    ‘Lets talk about the (space)weather’ will be a central meeting point for us all to move forward from, together.

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